从不下雨（陈继龙 编译）
Dec 13th 2006 | BEIJING
From The Economist print edition
中国古代的臣民曾以为他们的皇帝能够通过祈祷让老天下雨，而当今的中国官员则更相信科学，对其号称是全球最大人工降雨项目的投入也迅速加大。然而，到底能产生怎样的效果却较难量化。
（1）Just as grateful subjects praised the heavens for any rain that fell, the state-controlled media in China often report on the heroic contributions made by “weather-modification offices” whenever needed rain comes.These offices, set up over the past 15 years, deploy artillery, rocket-launchers and aeroplanes to seed clouds with chemicals (usually silver iodide) that encourage droplets to form and fall where needed, or prevent the formation of destructive hailstones.
正如心存感激的古代臣民为每一滴雨露歌颂上苍一样，中国国有传媒每当雨“有求必降”之时都会报道“人工影响天气办公室”所作的伟大贡献。在过去的十五年中，这类办公室相继成立，它们调动大炮、火箭发射器和飞机，利用化学品（通常是碘化银）来“播云”，作用要么是促进雨滴形成后降到需要雨水的地方，要么是防止破坏性冰雹形成。
China's efforts have been encouraged by an increasingly desperate shortage of water in the north. China also frets about the Olympic games in Beijing in August 2008, in a season when rainstorms are common. Making it rain away from big events is a key area of research. （2）Last week officials awarded merit certificates to organisations involved in “weather guarantee” work for a summit with African leaders held in Beijing in November.Those honoured included the air force, Beijing's military command and the Second Artillery, which controls missiles. All were urged to do a good job at an Olympic rehearsal next year.
中国之所以这么做，是因为北方缺水问题日益严重。中国还为2008年8月北京奥运会感到担忧，届时北京将正处于暴风雨季。让降雨避开大型活动是研究的一个关键领域。上周，官员向为11月北京非洲领导人峰会提供“天气保障”服务的有关单位颁发了奖状，受奖单位包括空军、北京军区和二炮（控制导弹的部队）。官员还敦促所有单位在明年奥运会预演时能有出色表现。
Artificial rainmaking is practised in many countries but its success is hard to prove. In recent years, China has been helped by big improvements in its weather-monitoring capacity. Its latest satellite, Fengyun-2D, was launched on December 8th with Olympic forecasting as a priority mission. It plans to launch another 22 weather satellites by 2020.
许多国家都开展了人工降雨，但难以证实其成功作用。近年来，中国在天气监控能力上有了很大提高，从中也受益颇多。12月8日发射的风云－2D是中国最新发射的一颗卫星，其首要任务是为奥运会提供天气预报服务。中国计划在2020年以前再发射22颗气象卫星。
Mao Jietai of Peking University says circumstantial evidence suggests cloud seeding can increase precipitation by around 10%, but admits doubts about its real efficacy. （3）Undaunted, the government has set an annual target for artificially induced rain nationwide for the next five years: around 50 billion cubic metres, or five times parched Beijing's average. As in imperial times, few will be able to refute claims of success.
北京大学的毛节泰（音）称，有间接证据表明，“播云”可能提高大约10％的降雨量，但他也不否认对其实际功效表示怀疑。政府并没有因此泄气，它已经为今后五年全国范围内的人工降雨制定了一个年度目标，即每年人工降雨大约500亿立方米或者达到北京低降雨量的5倍。就像帝王时代一样，上面说会成功就一定会成功，谁敢说不？
