C ô te d'Ivoire
科特迪瓦
Carving up the country
各取所需 （陈继龙 译）
Mar 8th 2007 | OUAGADOUGOU AND ABIDJAN
From The Economist print edition
A new deal offers the best chance yet for ending a civil war
一份新协议为结束内战提供了契机
IN SEPTEMBER 2002 Guillaume Soro, an obscure student leader, launched a rebellion that rapidly gained control of the northern half of C ô te d'Ivoire, which had been west Africa's most stable and prosperous country. Mr Soro denounced what he called the dictatorial rule of President Laurent Gbagbo. （1）After the fighting stopped, the two glowered at each other from either side of a UN- and French-patrolled strip of territory known over-optimistically as the “confidence zone”. But on March 4th the best of enemies signed a peace deal, the 14th of the country's long crisis. It may be C ô te d'Ivoire's best hope of peace yet.
科特迪瓦曾是西部非洲最稳定、最繁荣的国家。2002年9月，名不见经传的学生领袖吉劳姆 · 索罗（Guillaume Soro）发动了一场叛乱，迅速控制了该国北方半幅国土。索罗对其所谓的总统劳伦 · 巴博（Laurent Gbagbo）独裁统治予以了抨击。停战后，双方在联合国和法国巡逻部队驻扎的一条大街两侧保持对峙状态，这条大街也被过于乐观地称为“安全地带”。不过，3月4日，敌对双方领导人签署了和平协议，这也是该国这场漫长危机自开始以来所签署的第14份协议。该协议可能会在很大程度上为科特迪瓦实现和平带来希望。
That is because compromise has been reached on the two key issues: disarmament and identification. The latter is vital. Millions of Ivorians do not have identity papers, so northerners like Mr Soro and his fighters have been obstructed from getting the Ivorian citizenship that is rightfully theirs. A new government is to be formed within five weeks, probably with Mr Soro as prime minister. （2）The rebels and loyalist fighters are to be integrated into a joint army; and a joint command, with rebels and loyalists having an equal number of officers, will be set up within two weeks.
这是因为，双方在两个关键问题上达成了妥协，即解除武装和举行身份清查，尤其是后者。很多科特迪瓦人（Ivorian）是没有身份证的，因此像索罗和他的士兵这些北方人都无法取得合理的科特迪瓦公民身份。双方将在五周内组成新政府，索罗可能会出任总理。叛军和政府军将合并成统一的军队；双方还将在两周内建立联军司令部，叛军和政府军官员各占一半。
Messrs Gbagbo and Soro have asked for the confidence zone separating their forces to be dismantled. Instead, a “GREen line” of checkpoints manned by international troops is to be introduced, and the 11,000 French and UN peacekeepers now in C ô te d'Ivoire are to be gradually withdrawn. （3）Joint patrols between rebels and loyalists are also planned, which would have been inconceivable only six months ago. The two belligerent parties have asked for an international arms embargo to be lifted three months after elections are held, and for the embargo on light arms to be lifted straightaway, to help both sides police their territory. Central authority should be restored as civil servants move up to the northern half of the country still controlled by the rebels.
巴博和索罗已要求拆除分隔双方军队的“安全地带”，并代之以由多个检查站构成的“绿色分界线”。这些检查站将由国际部队派兵驻守。目前驻扎在科特迪瓦的1.1万名法国和联合国维和士兵也将陆续撤离。叛军和政府军还计划实行联合巡逻，这在半年前还是难以想像的。交战双方希望大选三个月后国际社会能解除武器禁运，并请求立即解除轻武器禁运，以促进双方维持所在地区治安。由于政府公职人员纷纷迁往仍由叛军控制的北部地区，因此双方还应当重建中央政权。
The ultimate aim of an ambitious peace document is for a presidential election, already postponed twice, to be held within ten months. Will it happen? The reaction from both ordinary Ivorians and foreign diplomats trying to solve the conflict has been optimistic. The African Union is urging both sides to keep their promises; the failure of 13 previous accords hardly inspires confidence. An election will be risky for Mr Gbagbo, who would be unlikely to win a fair contest; both his main rivals were barred from running when he was elected in 2000. For his part, Mr Soro would lose a lot of his persuasive powers once he laid down his arms.
这份雄心勃勃的和平协议，其主要目标是在十个月内举行已经两度推迟的总统大选。大选能如期举行吗？对此，科特迪瓦民众和参与冲突调停的别国外交官员均持乐观态度。非盟也在敦促双方信守承诺，不过前13份协议的失败让人并不抱太大的信心。大选对于巴博而言是有风险的，他不可能通过公平竞争来获胜。2000年他是在其两个主要对手均被禁止参选的情况下才当选的。就索罗来说，一旦放下手中的武器，就会大大丧失自己的威慑力。
（4）One reason for more optimism this time is that a detailed timetable has been drawn up and the accord signed after a month of hard negotiation between the president's camp and the rebels. Previous deals were rushed through and patched together in a matter of days under pressure from foreign countries. This time neither side has the excuse that the concessions it made were forced on it.
此次之所以较为乐观，原因还在于已经拟订了详尽的时间表，并且该协议是经过总统阵营和叛军双方历时一个月的艰苦谈判后才签署的，而之前的协议都是迫于外国压力，匆匆通过、拼凑而成的。此次双方都无法再以被迫为借口否认协议中所作的让步。
Furthermore, the Ouagadougou accord, named after the capital of neighbouring Burkina Faso where it was signed, seems to benefit both president and rebel leader. Foreign governments have become increasingly disillusioned with Mr Gbagbo and have tried at least twice to make him hand over many of his powers to an internationally appointed prime minister. This deal effectively excludes foreign countries from making big decisions. “It has given President Gbagbo all his presidential powers back,” says a Western diplomat.
再者，这份以邻国布基拉法索首都命名的《瓦加杜古协议》似乎对总统和叛军领袖都有利。外国政府曾对巴博倍感失望，至少有两次试图逼迫其把多数权力移交给国际社会任命的一位总理。此次协议在作重大决定方面排除了外国干预。某西方外交官称：“协议让总统巴博尽数收回了总统权力。”
A new body has been set up to oversee the accord, including two prominent opposition leaders, Alassane Ouattara and Henri Konan Bedié, who are not signatories of the accord itself. This increases the importance of Mr Soro, especially if he is soon named prime minister. （5）In short, it looks like a carve-up between Messrs Gbagbo and Soro—just what may give this deal the glue that previous ones lacked.
为了监督协议的落实，科特迪瓦还成立了一个新机构，其中包括两位著名的反对党领袖：阿拉萨尼 · 瓦塔拉（Alassane Ouattara）和亨利·科南 · 贝迪耶（Henri Konan Bedié）。他们都并非协议的签署者。这一机构的成立增强了索罗的重要性，特别是如果他不久之后被任命为总理的话。简言之，这就像巴博和索罗两个人的一次“分赃”，协议双方的利益是共通的，而此前并非如此。
