译者声明：本文仅用于翻译练习和英语学习，不代表本人政治观点。
Mar 2nd 2006 | BEIJING
From The Economist print edition
A calibrated provocation
精准的挑衅
But China has not fallen into the trap
但是中国大陆并没有上当。
（1）►IN THE elaborate ★fiction[1] that governs relations across the Taiwan Strait◄, there exists in Taiwan a body called the National Unification Council, whose notional aim is to advise the president on how the island and the mainland are to unite, an aim which China and Taiwan notionally share. The body has been inactive for six years. But when President Chen Shui-bian appeared to scrap it this week, he caused anger in China, and worry in America.
左右台湾海峡两岸关系的因素非常复杂，但又虚无缥缈，其中在台湾有一个名叫“国家统一委员会”的组织，其意图旨在就如何实现台岛和大陆的统一向“总统”建言献策，而从理论上讲，实现统一也是北京和台湾的共同意图。六年来，该组织一直无所作为。不过，当陈水扁“总统”本周宣布将其废止之际，北京感到大为恼怒，美国方面也是忧心忡忡。
Mr Chen has been weakened by scandals in his party but has two years left in office. Appealing to Taiwanese nationalism is one way to rally support. Hence the appeal of scrapping a body that is supposed to advise him on unification. But Mr Chen does not want to provoke China into a military response. So （2）►his decision was judiciously worded◄. The council, he said, had “ceased to function” and its guidelines had “ceased to apply”. This phrasing suggests the possibility of a future revival.
陈水扁因其党内丑闻而渐次式微，可他还有两年任期。拿台湾人的民族独立主义作文章，是一种赢取民众支持的办法，所以陈水扁才谋求废止这一被认为是劝其统一的组织。不过，陈水扁不希望激惹北京动武，因此宣布决定时很讲究措辞。他说，国统会已“终止运作”，其纲领已“终止适用”。这种说法暗示了将来重新恢复国统会的可能性。
The careful wording was also partly intended to pacify America, which has been trying to persuade Mr Chen not to ★rock the boat[1] since late January, when he signalled his intention to take this step. A spokesman for the State Department said America would “continue to hold President Chen by his commitments not to take unilateral moves”. He also said it was America's understanding that Mr Chen had not formally abolished the council.
从一定程度上看，措辞谨慎也是为了让美国放心。自从一月底发现陈水扁有意采取行动以来，美国一直试图说服陈水扁避免让事态恶化。美国务院一位发言人说，美国会“继续敦促陈水扁信守不采取单边行动的承诺”。他还说，美国已经了解到陈水扁并未正式废除国统会。
（3）►For all its fulminations, however, China does not seem keen to escalate this particular dispute◄. President Hu Jintao accused Mr Chen of taking a “dangerous step” towards independence. But officials have not threatened to ★invoke[3] an anti-secession law passed by China's legislature a year ago. That authorised military action against Taiwan in the event of （4）►undefined “major incidents” ★entailing[4] the island's independence from China◄. The law has been described by Taiwanese officials as a threat to the status quo and, indeed, a primary justification for Mr Chen's decision.
然而，北京尽管对此举进行了严词指责，但它似乎并不急于让这一特殊的矛盾升级。胡锦涛主席指责陈水扁朝台独又迈入了“危险的一步”，但是官方并没有威胁要援用一年前中国立法机关制定的《反国家分裂法》。该法规定，一旦发生将会导致台湾从中国分裂出去的“重大事变”，国家有权采取武力行动。台湾官方认为，此项法律是对台海现状的威胁，而且事实上也成为陈水扁此举的主要托词。
A bigger worry for Chinese leaders is that Mr Chen might ★renege on[5] other pledges not to amend the island's constitution. He may suggest that China is a separate country. Worse, he may change Taiwan's official name (the Republic of China). China does not officially accept this name for Taiwan, but much prefers it to the Republic of Taiwan. Given the distinct possibility that the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) will reclaim Taiwan's presidency in 2008, Mr Chen might （5）►feel tempted to risk a dramatic ★gesture[6]◄ in order to rally support for his party.
令北京领导人感到更为担忧的是，陈水扁可能违背不修改台湾宪法的其他承诺，他也许会说中国是一个分裂的国家，更糟糕的是他说不定会更改台湾的官方名称（中华民国）。北京虽未正式承认台湾是“中华民国”，但比起“台湾共和国”，它宁愿承认前者。若反对党国民党2008年执政台湾确有可能，陈水扁为了赢得民众对本党的支持，就会不惜冒险采取激烈手段。
But as Mr Chen noted this week, any constitutional reform would, under rules introduced last year, require approval by three-quarters of the legislature as well as a referendum. With the KMT and its supporters—who favour keeping on good terms with China and keeping the council—controlling a majority of parliament's seats, this would make it hard to introduce an amendment China strongly disliked. Mr Chen wants a constitutional referendum next year, but has not so far proposed any changes that would ★rile[7] the Chinese.
不过正如陈水扁本周所强调，按照去年通过的规定要求，任何宪法改革都需要立法会四分之三的委员和全民投票同意。由于国民党及其支持者——他们赞同与北京保持良好关系和维持国统会——在“议会”中占大多数席位，北京坚决反对的宪改很难得以实施。陈水扁是想在明年举行一次宪法公投，但是目前还不会改变现状，免得惹恼北京。
（6）►An escalation of rhetoric can be expected◄ in the next few days as China's legislature holds its annual meeting, starting on March 6th. Nationalistic outbursts from the Communist Party-picked delegates have become part of the ritual. Unlike the meeting last year at which the anti-secession law was adopted, the focus of this year's agenda will be domestic: in particular a new five-year economic plan which is aimed at reducing a growing gap between rich and poor. But just to be sure that Taiwan stays in line, the meeting will surely engage in another of its annual rituals, a hefty increase in military spending.
在接下来的几天里，随着3月6日中国立法机关年会的召开，北京在措辞方面将进一步严厉。在这一例会中，中共遴选的会议代表必然会发出一些爱国主义呼声。不同于去年那次通过《反分裂国家法》的会议，此次会议议程的重点在国内，尤其是旨在缩小日益拉大的贫富差距的新五年经济规划。不过，为确保台湾不会捣乱，此次会议肯定会遵照另一惯例，继续加大国防投入。
NOTES：（参考书：《朗文现代英汉双解词典》）
[1]fiction n.杜撰；虚构；幻象：His account of the crime was a complete fiction.他所讲述的那件罪行完全是虚构的。
[2]rock the boat 从中捣乱，使事情恶化：The leader of the party asked Tony not to rock the boat until after the election.党的领袖要别在选举前提出异议，免令情况恶化。
[3]invoke vt.使生效，援用：to invoke the powers of the law to present a crime.借助法律力量防止罪案
[4]entail：.vt. 承担，伴随，需要(施加或要求使成为必要的附属物或结果)an investment that entailed high risk.一项需承担高风险的投资
[5]renege：v.（on）背心，违约：You said you’d come—you can’t renege now!你说过要来——你现在不能失信。
[6]gesture n.表达，姿态：Some countries give rare animals to important foreign visitors as a gesture of friendship.有些国家把稀有动物送给重要的外宾以示友好。
[7]rile vt.恼怒，激怒热火：It riles me when he won’t stop whistling.他不停地吹口哨，把我给惹火了。
